SHFE Copper Experienced Position Reduction and Fluctuation, SHFE Aluminum Saw Position Increase and Rise [Institutional Commentary]

【Futures Market】In the night session, SHFE copper opened lower and continued to decline, bottomed out in the morning session, and fluctuated in the afternoon. The most-traded May contract closed at 81,560, down 1.03%, with total trading volume shrinking and total open interest decreasing by over 10,000 lots. SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound in the night session, rose in the morning session, and fluctuated in the afternoon. The most-traded May contract closed up 0.56%, with both total trading volume and open interest increasing. Meanwhile, the most-traded May alumina contract closed at 3,056, down 1.39%.

【Analysis】SHFE copper is undergoing short-term fluctuations and adjustments, but the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, technical indicators suggest focusing on the 10-day daily average, while in the medium term, attention should be paid to the continuous new lows and negative values of copper concentrate TCs, which may lead to production cuts by copper smelters. The medium-term outlook remains optimistic. The decline in aluminum social inventory and the reduction in exchange warrants indicate peak season consumption characteristics, with resistance near 21,000 to watch.

【Valuation】Copper is neutral to slightly high, aluminum is neutral.

【Risk】Macro policies fall short of expectations.

(Source: China Fortune Futures)